Historically, Nepal has been heavily reliant on and influenced by its southern neighbor, India. The two countries share a largely unfenced border, which has long facilitated labor migration from Nepal to India without the need for a visa regime. Also, Nepal depends heavily on trade with India: in 2022, Nepal's exports to India amounted to $935 million, while its imports from India reached $8.53 billion. Because of the country's heavy dependence on India, Nepal's left parties have increasingly expressed a strong anti-India posture over the past decades. For example, Former Prime Minister and CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli has pursued a distinctly pro-China foreign policy. Although Nepal has not been recognized as a member state, his participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO) summit signalled an interest in aligning more closely with Beijing's regional vision. Oli's government also reinforced Nepal's commitment to the One China policy and joined the Belt and Road Initiative in 2017.
Nepal's experience is noteworthy because it illustrates how a small state, deeply dependent on a neighboring power, seeks to maintain strategic autonomy between the giants.
South Korea's Geopolitics and Opinion
In this sense, Nepal's balancing act between India and China offers useful insights for South Korea as it navigates among its own powerful neighbors. As a peninsular nation, South Korea shares a border with North Korea, is close to China and Russia on the mainland, and faces Japan across the East Sea.
Korea's economy is deeply tied to China, which is one of South Korea's largest trading partners, accounting for roughly one-fifth of its exports in recent years. At the same time, South Korea has a close security alliance with the United States, and its exports to the U.S. also account for about one-fifth of the total. Although relations with Russia have deteriorated since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Korea has not pursued a fully hostile stance. For instance, South Korea has restricted strategic exports and joined Western sanctions, but it continues to limit energy and resource imports from Russia, reflecting a cautious approach. In fact, the 118 categories of items, such as marine products and naphtha, are heavily imported from Russia. Unlike Nepal, which mostly depends on India, Korea is deeply reliant on China, Russia, and the United States, making it more difficult to avoid the influence of either side.
While Seoul's alliance with the United States and Japan remains the cornerstone of its security policy, it should not rely solely on these partnerships. Building constructive and stable relations with China and Russia is equally important, since Pyongyang's confidence largely stems from their political and economic support. So, South Korea should strengthen its diplomatic engagement to ensure that Beijing and Moscow see value in maintaining stability on the peninsula—enough to restrain Pyongyang from extreme actions.
As a result, Seoul should maintain its pragmatic stance toward Russia. Despite Moscow's ongoing war in Ukraine, a complete break in relations could undermine Korea's long-term energy security and diplomatic flexibility. China, on the other hand, demands greater caution from a security perspective. China still depends on Korean high-end materials and technologies, but as Beijing's technological capacity grows, Korea's export competitiveness in key sectors such as semiconductors and electronics has come under pressure. So, Korea should find other sources of bargaining power and have strict regulations on technology theft.
Finally, closer security cooperation with the U.S. and Japan would further strengthen South Korea's strategic position. At the same time, Seoul should seek greater coordination among U.S. allies to ensure that Washington's growing demands on its partners are mutually beneficial. For Korea's national security, it is undeniable that the presence of the U.S is significant. However, it is necessary to strengthen the coordination among U.S. allies to ensure that decision-making is not entirely handed over to the U.S.. Full dependence could become a constraint in other negotiations such as tariffs. This is similar to the case of Nepal; avoid giving up its economic and diplomatic autonomy to a single country. The key point is to secure the nation's strategic autonomy.
Like Nepal strives to preserve its autonomy between India and China, South Korea should balance between complex international relations to safeguard its national interests. It would be challenging to strike a good balance as a strong tilt toward one side could invite severe economic or diplomatic costs from the others.
Minji Choe is a second-year undergraduate student in the Department of Public Policy and Management at Yonsei University. Her research interests include public policy, international relations, and international trade, with a regional focus on Russia, China, the United States, and Japan. Her research focuses on the political and economic implications of global developments, and she plans to further her studies in international political economy and industrial development.